Submitted by BJinAmerica on Tue, 09/22/2009 - 5:27am.
Is the recession over? Roubini says it isn't; Bernache says it is.Since Roubini indicated the financial crisis would happen while Bernache's worldview and actions helped make it happen, I tend to agree with Roubini's position that the recession will not end until next year.
Maybe GDP is in positive territory by now so after 2 consecutive quarters of positive GDP, the recession will technically be over. Unemployment is about to rise into the double digits and stay high for most of next year. Commercial real estate is in decline and won't see a bottom for a while because it lags residential real estate by about a year.
The stock market anticipates the state of the economy 6 to 9 months out. Actual GDP won't be known for months after it happens. Unemployment and real estate markets are trailing indicators.
Submitted by BJinAmerica on Tue, 09/22/2009 - 1:17pm.
I have been reading that people who took out risky balloon mortgages to buy their homes will soon feel the full brunt of that decision. It may mean more people facing foreclosure and bankruptcy. What do you know about this?
There are going to be more problems and bank failures starting this fall. It's just about time for the Autumnal Equinox, about an hour from now. There are going to be a lot more defaults as these ARMs come due later this year and into next year. It isn't going to be pretty.
Submitted by BJinAmerica on Tue, 09/22/2009 - 2:17pm.
Business Insider has reported that according to a report by Audit Integrity some high-profile names are on a list marked as having “the highest probability of declaring bankruptcy”. I think this is important information. If these large companies go under, more people will lose jobs and walk the unemployment line. Those companies include:
1. Hertz (Lots of debt financing a fleet of cars and falling rental demand)
2. Textron (Bad time to be selling business jets)
3. Sprint Nextel (Losing customers big time and has maturing debt)
4. Macy's (Has $2.4 billion of maturing debt over next five years)
5. Mylan ($5 billion in debt; last year lost over $1.3 billion)
Submitted by izarradar on Tue, 09/22/2009 - 10:28pm.
My family owns a lot of that #2 stock---We've owned it for years. As a matter of fact, I'm sure "Textron" was probably the first word I uttered as a young toddler. By the way, they don't just manufacture business jets; they also own Bell Helicopter.
Is the recession over? Roubini says it isn't; Bernache says it is.Since Roubini indicated the financial crisis would happen while Bernache's worldview and actions helped make it happen, I tend to agree with Roubini's position that the recession will not end until next year.
Maybe GDP is in positive territory by now so after 2 consecutive quarters of positive GDP, the recession will technically be over. Unemployment is about to rise into the double digits and stay high for most of next year. Commercial real estate is in decline and won't see a bottom for a while because it lags residential real estate by about a year.
The stock market anticipates the state of the economy 6 to 9 months out. Actual GDP won't be known for months after it happens. Unemployment and real estate markets are trailing indicators.
I think it's going to be a long, slow recovery.
I have been reading that people who took out risky balloon mortgages to buy their homes will soon feel the full brunt of that decision. It may mean more people facing foreclosure and bankruptcy. What do you know about this?
There are going to be more problems and bank failures starting this fall. It's just about time for the Autumnal Equinox, about an hour from now. There are going to be a lot more defaults as these ARMs come due later this year and into next year. It isn't going to be pretty.
Business Insider has reported that according to a report by Audit Integrity some high-profile names are on a list marked as having “the highest probability of declaring bankruptcy”. I think this is important information. If these large companies go under, more people will lose jobs and walk the unemployment line. Those companies include:
1. Hertz (Lots of debt financing a fleet of cars and falling rental demand)
2. Textron (Bad time to be selling business jets)
3. Sprint Nextel (Losing customers big time and has maturing debt)
4. Macy's (Has $2.4 billion of maturing debt over next five years)
5. Mylan ($5 billion in debt; last year lost over $1.3 billion)
6. Goodyear (Massive debt & pension obligations; demand for Goodyear tires sunk)
7. CBS (Less ad revenues and falling license fees cost them big time; $3.2 billion in debt)
8. Advanced Micro Devices ($5 billion in debt; lost $3 billion 2007-2008)
9. Las Vegas Sands (over-expanded last few years; $10 billion in debt )
10. Interpublic Group (Worldwide ad company ; GM is big customer)
Ten Big Companies That Are Veering Toward Bankruptcy: Tech Ticker, Yahoo! Finance
Yep, more problems ahead.
My family owns a lot of that #2 stock---We've owned it for years. As a matter of fact, I'm sure "Textron" was probably the first word I uttered as a young toddler. By the way, they don't just manufacture business jets; they also own Bell Helicopter.